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Controlled human malaria infection is used to measure efficacy of candidate malaria vaccines before field studies are undertaken. Mathematical modeling using data from quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) parasitemia monitoring can discriminate between vaccine effects on the parasite's liver and blood stages. Uncertainty regarding the most appropriate modeling method hinders interpretation of such trials. We used qPCR data from 267 Plasmodium falciparum infections to compare linear, sine-wave, and normal-cumulative-density-function models. We find that the parameters estimated by these models are closely correlated, and their predictive accuracy for omitted data points was similar. We propose that future studies include the linear model.

Original publication

DOI

10.1093/infdis/jit156

Type

Journal article

Journal

J Infect Dis

Publication Date

15/07/2013

Volume

208

Pages

340 - 345

Keywords

Plasmodium falciparum, clinical trial, malaria, modeling, qPCR, vaccine, Animals, Humans, Liver, Malaria Vaccines, Malaria, Falciparum, Models, Biological, Parasitemia, Plasmodium falciparum